Damallsvenskan (W) · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 13:00. Our rating makes this 58% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Damallsvenskan (W) average is 65%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Djurgården W at 59%, the draw at 23% and Rosengård W at 18%, from expected goals of 1.75 and 0.85.
The league sets the starting point. Damallsvenskan (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 65% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Djurgården W have 9 in 16 this season (3 of 7 at home), Rosengård W 7 in 16 (3 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 63%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 48%, from expected goals of 1.75 for Djurgården W and 0.85 for Rosengård W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Djurgården W | 16 | 56% | 31% | 44% |
| Rosengård W | 16 | 44% | 19% | 63% |
More: Djurgården W season stats · Rosengård W season stats · Damallsvenskan (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.