HNL · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 60% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The HNL average is 50%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Dinamo Zagreb at 85%, the draw at 10% and HNK Gorica at 4%, from expected goals of 3.02 and 0.59.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 | 67% | 60% | -8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.88 | 33% | 40% | +8% |
| Both teams to score | 2.10 | 44% | 53% | +9% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Dinamo Zagreb 1.14, draw 7.00, HNK Gorica 13.00.
The league sets the starting point. HNL has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Dinamo Zagreb have 3 in 4 this season (2 of 3 at home), HNK Gorica 2 in 5 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 49%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 65% and 46%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Head to head. These sides have met 11 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 64%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 70%, from expected goals of 3.02 for Dinamo Zagreb and 0.59 for HNK Gorica. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | 75% | 75% | 50% |
| HNK Gorica | 5 | 40% | 20% | 40% |
More: Dinamo Zagreb season stats · HNK Gorica season stats · HNL table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.