Allsvenskan · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 14:00. Our rating makes this 44% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Allsvenskan average is 53%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 56% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 78% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | No |
The result model puts Degerfors IF at 40%, the draw at 31% and Halmstad at 29%, from expected goals of 1.09 and 0.88.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 49% | 44% | -5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 51% | 56% | +5% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | 52% | 46% | -6% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Degerfors IF 1.85, draw 3.50, Halmstad 3.90.
The league sets the starting point. Allsvenskan has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Degerfors IF have 9 in 19 this season (5 of 9 at home), Halmstad 6 in 19 (3 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 43%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 48%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 32%, from expected goals of 1.09 for Degerfors IF and 0.88 for Halmstad. Folding in 30% of that view gives 44%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Degerfors IF | 19 | 47% | 16% | 42% |
| Halmstad | 19 | 32% | 16% | 47% |
More: Degerfors IF season stats · Halmstad season stats · Allsvenskan table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.