Primera Clausura · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 22:30. Our rating makes this 40% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Primera Clausura average is 43%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 77% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Club Sp. San Lorenzo at 19%, the draw at 24% and 2 de Mayo at 57%, from expected goals of 0.85 and 1.69.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Clausura has produced over 2.5 goals in 43% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Club Sp. San Lorenzo have 11 in 30 this season (5 of 14 at home), 2 de Mayo 12 in 30 (7 of 14 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 39% and 43%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 41%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 37%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 47%, from expected goals of 0.85 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo and 1.69 for 2 de Mayo. Folding in 30% of that view gives 40%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 30 | 37% | 20% | 37% |
| 2 de Mayo | 30 | 40% | 17% | 47% |
More: Club Sp. San Lorenzo season stats · 2 de Mayo season stats · Primera Clausura table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.