Super League · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 76% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Super League average is 68%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 76% | 24% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 69% | 31% | Yes |
The result model puts BSC Young Boys at 54%, the draw at 19% and FC Luzern at 27%, from expected goals of 2.48 and 1.76.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.28 | 74% | 76% | +2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.60 | 26% | 24% | -2% |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 | 66% | 69% | +3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: BSC Young Boys 1.48, draw 4.40, FC Luzern 5.50.
The league sets the starting point. Super League has produced over 2.5 goals in 68% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. BSC Young Boys have 6 in 6 this season (3 of 3 at home), FC Luzern 3 in 5 (2 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 75% and 67%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 74% and 76%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 74%.
Head to head. These sides have met 9 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 78%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 74%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 79%, from expected goals of 2.48 for BSC Young Boys and 1.76 for FC Luzern. Folding in 30% of that view gives 76%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BSC Young Boys | 6 | 100% | 100% | 83% |
| FC Luzern | 5 | 60% | 40% | 60% |
More: BSC Young Boys season stats · FC Luzern season stats · Super League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.