Bay FC W v Kansas City W — prediction, stats and goal analysis

NWSL (W) · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 03:00. Our rating makes this 47% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The NWSL (W) average is 47%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Bay FC W at 36%, the draw at 29% and Kansas City W at 36%, from expected goals of 1.13 and 1.13.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. NWSL (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Bay FC W have 9 in 21 this season (4 of 10 at home), Kansas City W 16 in 22 (8 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 44% and 60%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.

Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 51%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 39%, from expected goals of 1.13 for Bay FC W and 1.13 for Kansas City W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Head to head

More: Bay FC W season stats · Kansas City W season stats · NWSL (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.