1. Lig · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 14:00. Our rating makes this 42% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The 1. Lig average is 52%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 58% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | No |
The result model puts Bandırmaspor at 59%, the draw at 26% and Boluspor at 15%, from expected goals of 1.54 and 0.63.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 | 55% | 42% | -13% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 45% | 58% | +13% |
| Both teams to score | 2.10 | 44% | 47% | +2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Bandırmaspor 1.28, draw 4.50, Boluspor 9.00.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Lig has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Bandırmaspor have 1 in 5 this season (1 of 3 at home), Boluspor 2 in 5 (0 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 47% and 48%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 39% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 46%.
Head to head. These sides have met 7 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 29%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 45%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 37%, from expected goals of 1.54 for Bandırmaspor and 0.63 for Boluspor. Folding in 30% of that view gives 42%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bandırmaspor | 5 | 20% | 0% | 40% |
| Boluspor | 5 | 40% | 0% | 20% |
More: Bandırmaspor season stats · Boluspor season stats · 1. Lig table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.