Serie B · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 16:15. Our rating makes this 48% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie B average is 49%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts Ascoli at 42%, the draw at 27% and Benevento at 31%, from expected goals of 1.37 and 1.15.
The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Ascoli have 1 in 2 this season (0 of 1 at home), Benevento 1 in 2. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 47% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 46%, from expected goals of 1.37 for Ascoli and 1.15 for Benevento. Folding in 30% of that view gives 48%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ascoli | 2 | 50% | 0% | 100% |
| Benevento | 2 | 50% | 0% | 100% |
More: Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.