Championship · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 38% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Championship average is 43%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 62% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 80% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | No |
The result model puts Arbroath at 44%, the draw at 32% and Dunfermline at 25%, from expected goals of 1.1 and 0.75.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.35 | 40% | 38% | -2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 60% | 62% | +2% |
| Both teams to score | 2.00 | 46% | 47% | +0% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Arbroath 2.62, draw 3.00, Dunfermline 2.45.
The league sets the starting point. Championship has produced over 2.5 goals in 43% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Arbroath have 1 in 4 this season (0 of 2 at home), Dunfermline 0 in 4 (0 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 39% and 36%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 41% and 43%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 42%.
Head to head. These sides have met 10 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 43%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 28%, from expected goals of 1.1 for Arbroath and 0.75 for Dunfermline. Folding in 30% of that view gives 38%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arbroath | 4 | 25% | 0% | 25% |
| Dunfermline | 4 | 0% | 0% | 25% |
More: Arbroath season stats · Dunfermline season stats · Championship table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.