Liga Profesional · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 17:30. Our rating makes this 32% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Liga Profesional average is 34%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 68% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12% | 88% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 42% | 58% | No |
The result model puts Aldosivi at 32%, the draw at 32% and Banfield at 36%, from expected goals of 0.9 and 0.97.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.88 | 33% | 32% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.40 | 67% | 68% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 2.25 | 41% | 42% | +0% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Aldosivi 2.75, draw 2.88, Banfield 2.75.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Profesional has produced over 2.5 goals in 34% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Aldosivi have 6 in 23 this season (2 of 11 at home), Banfield 10 in 23 (5 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 28% and 38%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 33%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 33%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 29%, from expected goals of 0.9 for Aldosivi and 0.97 for Banfield. Folding in 30% of that view gives 32%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Aldosivi season stats · Banfield season stats · Liga Profesional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.