Pro League · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 16:55. Our rating makes this 49% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Pro League average is 56%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts Al Taawon at 51%, the draw at 28% and Al-Fateh at 21%, from expected goals of 1.39 and 0.79.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 | 55% | 49% | -6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.08 | 45% | 51% | +6% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | 56% | 61% | +5% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Al Taawon 1.80, draw 3.50, Al-Fateh 3.60.
The league sets the starting point. Pro League has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Al Taawon have 2 in 4 this season (0 of 2 at home), Al-Fateh 1 in 4 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 53%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 53% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 80%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 37%, from expected goals of 1.39 for Al Taawon and 0.79 for Al-Fateh. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Al Taawon season stats · Al-Fateh season stats · Pro League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.