Eerste Divisie · Friday, 4 September 2026 · 19:00. Our rating makes this 66% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Eerste Divisie average is 64%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 34% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 38% | Yes |
The result model puts Waalwijk at 36%, the draw at 22% and NAC Breda at 42%, from expected goals of 1.75 and 1.89.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 | 61% | 66% | +5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.40 | 39% | 34% | -5% |
| Both teams to score | 1.44 | 65% | 62% | -3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Waalwijk 2.62, draw 3.60, NAC Breda 2.35.
The league sets the starting point. Eerste Divisie has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Waalwijk have 2 in 4 this season (2 of 2 at home), NAC Breda 3 in 4 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 67%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 64% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 64%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 71%, from expected goals of 1.75 for Waalwijk and 1.89 for NAC Breda. Folding in 30% of that view gives 66%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Waalwijk season stats · NAC Breda season stats · Eerste Divisie table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.