Serie B · Friday, 4 September 2026 · 00:00. Our rating makes this 35% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie B average is 40%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 65% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% | 86% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | No |
The result model puts Nautico Recife at 47%, the draw at 31% and Botafogo SP at 22%, from expected goals of 1.17 and 0.7.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.15 | 44% | 35% | -9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 56% | 65% | +9% |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 | 49% | 46% | -3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Nautico Recife 1.95, draw 3.25, Botafogo SP 3.70.
The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 40% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Nautico Recife have 9 in 25 this season (4 of 12 at home), Botafogo SP 12 in 33 (4 of 17 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 38% and 35%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 37%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 29%, from expected goals of 1.17 for Nautico Recife and 0.7 for Botafogo SP. Folding in 30% of that view gives 35%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nautico Recife | 25 | 36% | 16% | 44% |
| Botafogo SP | 33 | 36% | 15% | 42% |
More: Nautico Recife season stats · Botafogo SP season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.