Eliteserien · Friday, 4 September 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 57% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Eliteserien average is 62%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | no pick |
The result model puts Fredrikstad at 24%, the draw at 24% and Bodo/Glimt at 52%, from expected goals of 1.06 and 1.69.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 | 67% | 57% | -10% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.88 | 33% | 43% | +10% |
| Both teams to score | 1.70 | 55% | 51% | -3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Fredrikstad 8.00, draw 5.50, Bodo/Glimt 1.30.
The league sets the starting point. Eliteserien has produced over 2.5 goals in 62% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Fredrikstad have 10 in 18 this season (4 of 8 at home), Bodo/Glimt 13 in 18 (6 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 66%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 40%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 52%, from expected goals of 1.06 for Fredrikstad and 1.69 for Bodo/Glimt. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fredrikstad | 18 | 56% | 33% | 56% |
| Bodo/Glimt | 18 | 72% | 44% | 33% |
More: Fredrikstad season stats · Bodo/Glimt season stats · Eliteserien table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.