3. Liga · Friday, 4 September 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 68% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 3. Liga average is 64%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 32% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | 59% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 65% | 35% | Yes |
The result model puts FC Ingolstadt 04 at 27%, the draw at 21% and Alemannia Aachen at 52%, from expected goals of 1.48 and 2.1.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 | 61% | 68% | +7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.40 | 39% | 32% | -7% |
| Both teams to score | 1.44 | 65% | 65% | +1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: FC Ingolstadt 04 2.40, draw 3.60, Alemannia Aachen 2.40.
The league sets the starting point. 3. Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FC Ingolstadt 04 have 1 in 3 this season (1 of 1 at home), Alemannia Aachen 2 in 3 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 62%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 69% and 71%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 69%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 67%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 69%, from expected goals of 1.48 for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 2.1 for Alemannia Aachen. Folding in 30% of that view gives 68%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Ingolstadt 04 | 3 | 33% | 33% | 67% |
| Alemannia Aachen | 3 | 67% | 33% | 67% |
More: FC Ingolstadt 04 season stats · Alemannia Aachen season stats · 3. Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.