Premiere Ligue (W) · Friday, 4 September 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 58% to go over 2.5 goals, though our own outlier boards contradict the call, so we sit it out. The Premiere Ligue (W) average is 60%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 40% | 60% | No |
The result model puts FC Fleury 91 W at 7%, the draw at 14% and Lyon W at 79%, from expected goals of 0.58 and 2.46.
The league sets the starting point. Premiere Ligue (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FC Fleury 91 W have 7 in 21 this season (3 of 11 at home), Lyon W 17 in 24 (6 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 46% and 63%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 83%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 59%, from expected goals of 0.58 for FC Fleury 91 W and 2.46 for Lyon W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Fleury 91 W | 21 | 33% | 10% | 38% |
| Lyon W | 24 | 71% | 58% | 38% |
More: FC Fleury 91 W season stats · Lyon W season stats · Premiere Ligue (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.