Superliga · Friday, 4 September 2026 · 17:30. Our rating makes this 38% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Superliga average is 37%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 62% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 78% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 41% | 59% | No |
The result model puts Egnatia Rrogozhinë at 62%, the draw at 22% and Skenderbeu Korce at 16%, from expected goals of 1.86 and 0.81.
The league sets the starting point. Superliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 37% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Egnatia Rrogozhinë have 2 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), Skenderbeu Korce 1 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 42% and 39%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 35% and 39%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 37%.
Head to head. These sides have met 7 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 33%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1.86 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë and 0.81 for Skenderbeu Korce. Folding in 30% of that view gives 38%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 2 | 100% | 50% | 50% |
| Skenderbeu Korce | 2 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
More: Egnatia Rrogozhinë season stats · Skenderbeu Korce season stats · Superliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.