Serie B · Friday, 4 September 2026 · 23:30. Our rating makes this 31% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie B average is 40%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% | 69% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% | 86% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts Criciuma at 43%, the draw at 32% and Cuiaba at 25%, from expected goals of 1.06 and 0.72.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.70 | 35% | 31% | -4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.44 | 65% | 69% | +4% |
| Both teams to score | 2.50 | 38% | 48% | +11% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Criciuma 1.80, draw 3.20, Cuiaba 5.00.
The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 40% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Criciuma have 5 in 25 this season (1 of 12 at home), Cuiaba 5 in 25 (4 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 27% and 32%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 32%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 40%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 33%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 26%, from expected goals of 1.06 for Criciuma and 0.72 for Cuiaba. Folding in 30% of that view gives 31%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Criciuma season stats · Cuiaba season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.