Liga I · Friday, 4 September 2026 · 18:30. Our rating makes this 50% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Liga I average is 46%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts CFR 1907 Cluj at 64%, the draw at 21% and Farul Constanta at 15%, from expected goals of 1.93 and 0.81.
The league sets the starting point. Liga I has produced over 2.5 goals in 46% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. CFR 1907 Cluj have 5 in 6 this season (1 of 2 at home), Farul Constanta 3 in 7 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 46%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 49% and 45%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Head to head. These sides have met 8 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 52%, from expected goals of 1.93 for CFR 1907 Cluj and 0.81 for Farul Constanta. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFR 1907 Cluj | 6 | 83% | 50% | 50% |
| Farul Constanta | 7 | 43% | 29% | 71% |
More: CFR 1907 Cluj season stats · Farul Constanta season stats · Liga I table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.