Frauen-Bundesliga (W) · Friday, 4 September 2026 · 17:30. Our rating makes this 59% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Frauen-Bundesliga (W) average is 67%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts 1899 Hoffenheim W at 27%, the draw at 25% and Bayer Leverkusen W at 48%, from expected goals of 1.13 and 1.59.
The league sets the starting point. Frauen-Bundesliga (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 67% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. 1899 Hoffenheim W have 1 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), Bayer Leverkusen W 1 in 2 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 67% and 64%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 59% and 68%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 64%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 63%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.13 for 1899 Hoffenheim W and 1.59 for Bayer Leverkusen W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1899 Hoffenheim W | 2 | 50% | 0% | 50% |
| Bayer Leverkusen W | 2 | 50% | 0% | 50% |
More: 1899 Hoffenheim W season stats · Bayer Leverkusen W season stats · Frauen-Bundesliga (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.