Allsvenskan · Thursday, 3 September 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 49% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Allsvenskan average is 53%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Mjallby AIF at 32%, the draw at 29% and Djurgardens IF at 38%, from expected goals of 1.03 and 1.14.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.60 | 59% | 49% | -10% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.30 | 41% | 51% | +10% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | 58% | 53% | -4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Mjallby AIF 4.00, draw 3.90, Djurgardens IF 1.73.
The league sets the starting point. Allsvenskan has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Mjallby AIF have 9 in 17 this season (3 of 8 at home), Djurgardens IF 12 in 18 (4 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 37%, from expected goals of 1.03 for Mjallby AIF and 1.14 for Djurgardens IF. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mjallby AIF | 17 | 53% | 29% | 47% |
| Djurgardens IF | 18 | 67% | 44% | 44% |
More: Mjallby AIF season stats · Djurgardens IF season stats · Allsvenskan table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.