Pro League · Thursday, 3 September 2026 · 19:00. Our rating makes this 59% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Pro League average is 56%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 60% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Al Diriyah at 13%, the draw at 18% and Al-Qadisiyah FC at 69%, from expected goals of 0.89 and 2.31.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.48 | 64% | 59% | -5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.60 | 36% | 41% | +5% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | 58% | 58% | +1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Al Diriyah 5.25, draw 4.20, Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.45.
The league sets the starting point. Pro League has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Al Diriyah have 1 in 4 this season (0 of 2 at home), Al-Qadisiyah FC 2 in 4 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 55%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 50% and 66%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 0.89 for Al Diriyah and 2.31 for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Diriyah | 4 | 25% | 0% | 25% |
| Al-Qadisiyah FC | 4 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
More: Al Diriyah season stats · Al-Qadisiyah FC season stats · Pro League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.