Premiership · Wednesday, 2 September 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 53% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Premiership average is 52%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Kilmarnock at 21%, the draw at 21% and ST Mirren at 58%, from expected goals of 1.17 and 2.07.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 | 59% | 53% | -5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.30 | 41% | 47% | +5% |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 | 61% | 49% | -11% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Kilmarnock 2.88, draw 3.60, ST Mirren 2.35.
The league sets the starting point. Premiership has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Kilmarnock have 3 in 3 this season (2 of 2 at home), ST Mirren 1 in 3 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 49%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 64% and 34%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Head to head. These sides have met 11 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 45%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 1.17 for Kilmarnock and 2.07 for ST Mirren. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kilmarnock | 3 | 100% | 100% | 67% |
| ST Mirren | 3 | 33% | 33% | 33% |
More: Kilmarnock season stats · ST Mirren season stats · Premiership table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.