Premiership · Wednesday, 2 September 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 58% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Premiership average is 52%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts Falkirk at 14%, the draw at 18% and Rangers at 68%, from expected goals of 0.99 and 2.35.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 | 59% | 58% | 0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.30 | 41% | 42% | +0% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | 58% | 56% | -1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Falkirk 5.25, draw 4.33, Rangers 1.60.
The league sets the starting point. Premiership has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Falkirk have 1 in 3 this season (0 of 1 at home), Rangers 1 in 3 (0 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 48%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 56% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 65%, from expected goals of 0.99 for Falkirk and 2.35 for Rangers. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Falkirk season stats · Rangers season stats · Premiership table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.