Bundesliga · Tuesday, 1 September 2026 · 18:30. Final score 1–3 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 54% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Wolfsberger AC at 43%, the draw at 27% and Lask Linz at 31%, from expected goals of 1.39 and 1.14.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 | 67% | 54% | -14% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.88 | 33% | 46% | +14% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | 59% | 57% | -2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Wolfsberger AC 7.00, draw 5.00, Lask Linz 1.38.
The league sets the starting point. Bundesliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Wolfsberger AC have 2 in 4 this season (1 of 2 at home), Lask Linz 3 in 4 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 53%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 56% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 47%, from expected goals of 1.39 for Wolfsberger AC and 1.14 for Lask Linz. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsberger AC | 4 | 50% | 0% | 50% |
| Lask Linz | 4 | 75% | 25% | 25% |
More: Wolfsberger AC season stats · Lask Linz season stats · Bundesliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.