Championship · Tuesday, 1 September 2026. Final score 4–2 (half-time 2–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 54% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts West Ham at 35%, the draw at 26% and Wolves at 39%, from expected goals of 1.33 and 1.43.
The league sets the starting point. Championship has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. West Ham have 2 in 3 this season (1 of 1 at home), Wolves 3 in 3 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 52%, from expected goals of 1.33 for West Ham and 1.43 for Wolves. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: West Ham season stats · Wolves season stats · Championship table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.