Challenge League · Tuesday, 1 September 2026 · 18:30. Final score 3–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 54% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 52%, the draw at 25% and Étoile Carouge at 23%, from expected goals of 1.58 and 0.94.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 60% | 54% | -6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.35 | 40% | 46% | +6% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | 59% | 57% | -2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.73, draw 3.60, Étoile Carouge 4.33.
The league sets the starting point. Challenge League has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have 1 in 5 this season (0 of 2 at home), Étoile Carouge 2 in 5 (0 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 55%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 60% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Head to head. These sides have met 8 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 38%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 46%, from expected goals of 1.58 for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and 0.94 for Étoile Carouge. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 5 | 20% | 0% | 60% |
| Étoile Carouge | 5 | 40% | 0% | 40% |
More: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy season stats · Étoile Carouge season stats · Challenge League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.