Primera Clausura · Tuesday, 1 September 2026. Final score 3–1 (half-time 1–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 43% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 57% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Rubio NU at 42%, the draw at 30% and Club Sp. San Lorenzo at 28%, from expected goals of 1.21 and 0.94.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Clausura has produced over 2.5 goals in 42% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Rubio NU have 4 in 7 this season (1 of 3 at home), Club Sp. San Lorenzo 2 in 7 (1 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 46% and 39%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 43%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 36%, from expected goals of 1.21 for Rubio NU and 0.94 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo. Folding in 30% of that view gives 41%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 43%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubio NU | 7 | 57% | 43% | 57% |
| Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 7 | 29% | 0% | 14% |
More: Rubio NU season stats · Club Sp. San Lorenzo season stats · Primera Clausura table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.