Challenge League · Tuesday, 1 September 2026 · 18:30. Final score 1–2 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 68% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 32% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | 57% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 64% | 36% | Yes |
The result model puts Neuchatel Xamax FC at 30%, the draw at 22% and Yverdon Sport at 48%, from expected goals of 1.45 and 1.89.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 | 58% | 68% | +10% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.25 | 42% | 32% | -10% |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 | 63% | 64% | +1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Neuchatel Xamax FC 2.80, draw 3.50, Yverdon Sport 2.30.
The league sets the starting point. Challenge League has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Neuchatel Xamax FC have 4 in 5 this season (2 of 2 at home), Yverdon Sport 2 in 5 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 66% and 58%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 66% and 69%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 66%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 70%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 65%, from expected goals of 1.45 for Neuchatel Xamax FC and 1.89 for Yverdon Sport. Folding in 30% of that view gives 68%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neuchatel Xamax FC | 5 | 80% | 20% | 80% |
| Yverdon Sport | 5 | 40% | 20% | 80% |
More: Neuchatel Xamax FC season stats · Yverdon Sport season stats · Challenge League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.