PSL · Tuesday, 1 September 2026 · 18:30. Final score 0–4 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 52% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 41% | 59% | No |
The result model puts Kruger United at 6%, the draw at 13% and Orlando Pirates at 82%, from expected goals of 0.58 and 2.67.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 51% | 48% | -3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 49% | 52% | +3% |
| Both teams to score | 2.50 | 38% | 41% | +4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Kruger United 10.00, draw 4.33, Orlando Pirates 1.27.
The league sets the starting point. PSL has produced over 2.5 goals in 30% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Kruger United have 2 in 4 this season (1 of 2 at home), Orlando Pirates 1 in 4 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 33% and 31%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 53% and 37%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 42%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 0.58 for Kruger United and 2.67 for Orlando Pirates. Folding in 30% of that view gives 48%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kruger United | 4 | 50% | 25% | 50% |
| Orlando Pirates | 4 | 25% | 0% | 25% |
More: Kruger United season stats · Orlando Pirates season stats · PSL table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.