Liga Profesional · Tuesday, 1 September 2026 · 01:15. Final score 1–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 77% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 23% | 77% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 8% | 92% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 38% | 62% | No |
The result model puts Instituto Cordoba at 35%, the draw at 39% and San Lorenzo at 26%, from expected goals of 0.76 and 0.61.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.88 | 33% | 23% | -10% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.40 | 67% | 77% | +10% |
| Both teams to score | 2.50 | 38% | 38% | +0% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Instituto Cordoba 1.90, draw 3.10, San Lorenzo 4.50.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Profesional has produced over 2.5 goals in 34% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Instituto Cordoba have 6 in 22 this season (5 of 10 at home), San Lorenzo 3 in 23 (0 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 34% and 21%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 29%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 26%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 16%, from expected goals of 0.76 for Instituto Cordoba and 0.61 for San Lorenzo. Folding in 30% of that view gives 23%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Instituto Cordoba | 22 | 27% | 5% | 36% |
| San Lorenzo | 23 | 13% | 9% | 30% |
More: Instituto Cordoba season stats · San Lorenzo season stats · Liga Profesional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.