Primera Nacional · Tuesday, 1 September 2026 · 01:00. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–0). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 41% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 59% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | 83% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 44% | 56% | No |
The result model puts Gimnasia Jujuy at 72%, the draw at 18% and Agropecuario at 10%, from expected goals of 2.16 and 0.64.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.25 | 42% | 41% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.62 | 58% | 59% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 2.00 | 46% | 44% | -2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Gimnasia Jujuy 2.00, draw 3.25, Agropecuario 4.10.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 30% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Gimnasia Jujuy have 14 in 26 this season (6 of 13 at home), Agropecuario 8 in 26 (4 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 42% and 30%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 35%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 40%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 35%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 2.16 for Gimnasia Jujuy and 0.64 for Agropecuario. Folding in 30% of that view gives 41%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gimnasia Jujuy | 26 | 54% | 19% | 58% |
| Agropecuario | 26 | 31% | 8% | 38% |
More: Gimnasia Jujuy season stats · Agropecuario season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.