National League · Tuesday, 1 September 2026 · 19:45. Final score 1–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 54% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts FC Halifax Town at 47%, the draw at 23% and Hartlepool at 29%, from expected goals of 1.78 and 1.37.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 | 55% | 54% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.08 | 45% | 46% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | 56% | 52% | -4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: FC Halifax Town 2.50, draw 3.40, Hartlepool 2.50.
The league sets the starting point. National League has produced over 2.5 goals in 57% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FC Halifax Town have 4 in 4 this season (2 of 2 at home), Hartlepool 1 in 4 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 53%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 63% and 45%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 17%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 61%, from expected goals of 1.78 for FC Halifax Town and 1.37 for Hartlepool. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Halifax Town | 4 | 100% | 75% | 100% |
| Hartlepool | 4 | 25% | 0% | 25% |
More: FC Halifax Town season stats · Hartlepool season stats · National League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.