PSL · Tuesday, 1 September 2026 · 18:30. Final score 0–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 77% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 0, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 23% | 77% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 11% | 89% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 34% | 66% | No |
The result model puts Durban City at 41%, the draw at 34% and Stellenbosch at 25%, from expected goals of 0.99 and 0.69.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.62 | 35% | 23% | -13% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.44 | 65% | 77% | +13% |
| Both teams to score | 2.20 | 42% | 34% | -9% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Durban City 2.60, draw 2.88, Stellenbosch 2.60.
The league sets the starting point. PSL has produced over 2.5 goals in 30% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Durban City have 0 in 4 this season (0 of 2 at home), Stellenbosch 2 in 4 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 25% and 33%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 19% and 29%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 25%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 23%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 24%, from expected goals of 0.99 for Durban City and 0.69 for Stellenbosch. Folding in 30% of that view gives 23%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durban City | 4 | 0% | 0% | 25% |
| Stellenbosch | 4 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
More: Durban City season stats · Stellenbosch season stats · PSL table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.