Primera A · Tuesday, 1 September 2026 · 00:00. Final score 1–2 (half-time 1–2). Before kick-off we rated it 60% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 79% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | No |
The result model puts Deportivo Pasto at 57%, the draw at 27% and Deportivo Pereira at 16%, from expected goals of 1.44 and 0.62.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.00 | 47% | 40% | -7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.80 | 53% | 60% | +7% |
| Both teams to score | 2.10 | 44% | 46% | +2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Deportivo Pasto 1.50, draw 3.90, Deportivo Pereira 6.50.
The league sets the starting point. Primera A has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Deportivo Pasto have 13 in 27 this season (5 of 14 at home), Deportivo Pereira 8 in 22 (4 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 44% and 39%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 42%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 43%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 34%, from expected goals of 1.44 for Deportivo Pasto and 0.62 for Deportivo Pereira. Folding in 30% of that view gives 40%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Pasto | 27 | 48% | 22% | 52% |
| Deportivo Pereira | 22 | 36% | 32% | 36% |
More: Deportivo Pasto season stats · Deportivo Pereira season stats · Primera A table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.