League Two · Tuesday, 1 September 2026 · 19:45. Final score 1–1 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 58% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 58% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Chesterfield at 51%, the draw at 28% and Gillingham at 22%, from expected goals of 1.39 and 0.8.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.00 | 47% | 42% | -6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.80 | 53% | 58% | +6% |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | 50% | 54% | +4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Chesterfield 1.60, draw 3.80, Gillingham 5.75.
The league sets the starting point. League Two has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Chesterfield have 1 in 3 this season (0 of 1 at home), Gillingham 1 in 3 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 46% and 46%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 44% and 46%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 46%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 25%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 44%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 37%, from expected goals of 1.39 for Chesterfield and 0.8 for Gillingham. Folding in 30% of that view gives 42%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield | 3 | 33% | 0% | 33% |
| Gillingham | 3 | 33% | 0% | 33% |
More: Chesterfield season stats · Gillingham season stats · League Two table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.