League One · Tuesday, 1 September 2026 · 19:45. Final score 1–2 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 56% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 56% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 80% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Bradford at 58%, the draw at 25% and Cambridge United at 17%, from expected goals of 1.59 and 0.72.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 45% | 44% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.70 | 55% | 56% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 | 50% | 53% | +3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Bradford 2.10, draw 3.10, Cambridge United 3.50.
The league sets the starting point. League One has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Bradford have 0 in 3 this season (0 of 1 at home), Cambridge United 2 in 3 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 46% and 51%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 49% and 38%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 45%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 41%, from expected goals of 1.59 for Bradford and 0.72 for Cambridge United. Folding in 30% of that view gives 44%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradford | 3 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Cambridge United | 3 | 67% | 33% | 100% |
More: Bradford season stats · Cambridge United season stats · League One table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.