NWSL (W) · Tuesday, 1 September 2026 · 01:00. Final score 2–5 (half-time 1–3). Before kick-off we rated it 51% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 7, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Boston Legacy W at 34%, the draw at 25% and Angel City W at 41%, from expected goals of 1.34 and 1.52.
The league sets the starting point. NWSL (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Boston Legacy W have 11 in 21 this season (8 of 12 at home), Angel City W 11 in 20 (4 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 1.34 for Boston Legacy W and 1.52 for Angel City W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Legacy W | 21 | 52% | 24% | 62% |
| Angel City W | 20 | 55% | 15% | 60% |
More: Boston Legacy W season stats · Angel City W season stats · NWSL (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.