NWSL (W) · Tuesday, 1 September 2026. Final score 2–5 (half-time 1–3). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 51% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts Boston Legacy W at 36%, the draw at 26% and Angel City W at 39%, from expected goals of 1.39 and 1.46.
The league sets the starting point. NWSL (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Boston Legacy W have 11 in 21 this season (8 of 12 at home), Angel City W 11 in 20 (4 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 51%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 21 and 20 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 49% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 54%, from expected goals of 1.39 for Boston Legacy W and 1.46 for Angel City W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Legacy W | 21 | 52% | 24% | 62% |
| Angel City W | 20 | 55% | 15% | 60% |
More: Boston Legacy W season stats · Angel City W season stats · NWSL (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.