1. Lig · Tuesday, 1 September 2026 · 14:00. Final score 0–1 (half-time 0–1). Our pre-match rating was 43% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 57% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Bandırmaspor at 56%, the draw at 27% and Antalyaspor at 18%, from expected goals of 1.47 and 0.69.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.08 | 45% | 43% | -2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.73 | 55% | 57% | +2% |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 | 54% | 49% | -5% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Bandırmaspor 2.35, draw 3.00, Antalyaspor 2.75.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Lig has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Bandırmaspor have 1 in 4 this season (1 of 2 at home), Antalyaspor 3 in 4 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 53%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 38% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 46%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 37%, from expected goals of 1.47 for Bandırmaspor and 0.69 for Antalyaspor. Folding in 30% of that view gives 43%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bandırmaspor | 4 | 25% | 0% | 50% |
| Antalyaspor | 4 | 75% | 50% | 75% |
More: Bandırmaspor season stats · Antalyaspor season stats · 1. Lig table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.