Premier League · Monday, 31 August 2026 · 11:00. Final score 0–3 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 52% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | No |
The result model puts Zorya Luhansk at 53%, the draw at 25% and FC Kharkiv at 22%, from expected goals of 1.58 and 0.92.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 1.91 | 49% | 46% | -2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Zorya Luhansk 2.60, draw 3.10, FC Kharkiv 2.50.
The league sets the starting point. Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Zorya Luhansk have 2 in 3 this season (1 of 2 at home), FC Kharkiv 1 in 3 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 47%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 52% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 46%, from expected goals of 1.58 for Zorya Luhansk and 0.92 for FC Kharkiv. Folding in 30% of that view gives 48%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zorya Luhansk | 3 | 67% | 33% | 67% |
| FC Kharkiv | 3 | 33% | 33% | 33% |
More: Zorya Luhansk season stats · FC Kharkiv season stats · Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.