National League · Monday, 31 August 2026 · 15:00. Final score 2–3 (half-time 1–0). Our pre-match rating was 64% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 36% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Worthing at 19%, the draw at 20% and Boreham Wood at 61%, from expected goals of 1.12 and 2.16.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.36 | 70% | 64% | -6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.10 | 30% | 36% | +6% |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 | 63% | 58% | -4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Worthing 4.50, draw 4.50, Boreham Wood 1.53.
The league sets the starting point. National League has produced over 2.5 goals in 57% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Worthing have 3 in 4 this season (1 of 2 at home), Boreham Wood 4 in 4 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 64%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 63% and 68%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 64%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 64%, from expected goals of 1.12 for Worthing and 2.16 for Boreham Wood. Folding in 30% of that view gives 64%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worthing | 4 | 75% | 50% | 75% |
| Boreham Wood | 4 | 100% | 50% | 75% |
More: Worthing season stats · Boreham Wood season stats · National League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.