Superliga · Monday, 31 August 2026 · 15:00. Final score 1–3 (half-time 0–0). Our pre-match rating was 32% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 68% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | 83% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 42% | 58% | No |
The result model puts Vora at 38%, the draw at 30% and Egnatia Rrogozhinë at 33%, from expected goals of 1.11 and 1.02.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 | 54% | 32% | -22% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.05 | 46% | 68% | +22% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Vora 3.60, draw 3.10, Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1.95.
The league sets the starting point. Superliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 37% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Vora have 0 in 1 this season, Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 36% and 39%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 33% and 34%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 34%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 31%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 36%, from expected goals of 1.11 for Vora and 1.02 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë. Folding in 30% of that view gives 32%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vora | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 1 | 100% | 0% | 0% |
More: Vora season stats · Egnatia Rrogozhinë season stats · Superliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.