Premyer Liqa · Monday, 31 August 2026 · 17:15. Final score 0–1 (half-time 0–1). Our pre-match rating was 55% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 55% | No |
The result model puts Sumqayıt at 21%, the draw at 20% and Qarabag at 59%, from expected goals of 1.2 and 2.14.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 | 61% | 55% | -6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.38 | 39% | 45% | +6% |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | 50% | 45% | -5% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Sumqayıt 7.50, draw 4.10, Qarabag 1.36.
The league sets the starting point. Premyer Liqa has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Sumqayıt have 1 in 1 this season (1 of 1 at home), Qarabag 1 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 49%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 56% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Head to head. These sides have met 11 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 45%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 65%, from expected goals of 1.2 for Sumqayıt and 2.14 for Qarabag. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Sumqayıt season stats · Qarabag season stats · Premyer Liqa table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.