St. Louis City v FC Dallas — prediction, stats and goal analysis

MLS · Monday, 31 August 2026 · 00:00. Our rating makes this 54% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The MLS average is 60%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts St. Louis City at 40%, the draw at 26% and FC Dallas at 35%, from expected goals of 1.42 and 1.31.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. MLS has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. St. Louis City have 8 in 20 this season (5 of 9 at home), FC Dallas 13 in 20 (7 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 62%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.

Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 55%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 52%, from expected goals of 1.42 for St. Louis City and 1.31 for FC Dallas. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Head to head

More: St. Louis City season stats · FC Dallas season stats · MLS table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.