Superliga · Monday, 31 August 2026 · 20:00. Final score 0–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 64% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 64% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | 82% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | No |
The result model puts Skenderbeu Korce at 33%, the draw at 31% and Dinamo Tirana at 36%, from expected goals of 0.99 and 1.04.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.20 | 43% | 36% | -7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.65 | 57% | 64% | +7% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Skenderbeu Korce 3.10, draw 3.25, Dinamo Tirana 2.00.
The league sets the starting point. Superliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 37% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Skenderbeu Korce have 1 in 1 this season, Dinamo Tirana 0 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 39% and 36%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 39% and 33%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 36%.
Head to head. These sides have met 8 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 38%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 33%, from expected goals of 0.99 for Skenderbeu Korce and 1.04 for Dinamo Tirana. Folding in 30% of that view gives 36%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skenderbeu Korce | 1 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Dinamo Tirana | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
More: Skenderbeu Korce season stats · Dinamo Tirana season stats · Superliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.