Allsvenskan · Monday, 31 August 2026 · 18:00. Final score 0–1 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 61% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 60% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Sirius at 46%, the draw at 23% and Malmo FF at 31%, from expected goals of 1.79 and 1.46.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 | 65% | 61% | -4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.70 | 35% | 39% | +4% |
| Both teams to score | 1.44 | 65% | 58% | -7% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Sirius 1.70, draw 4.33, Malmo FF 3.90.
The league sets the starting point. Allsvenskan has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Sirius have 15 in 18 this season (7 of 9 at home), Malmo FF 13 in 18 (4 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 66% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 1.79 for Sirius and 1.46 for Malmo FF. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Sirius season stats · Malmo FF season stats · Allsvenskan table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.