Primeira Liga · Monday, 31 August 2026 · 20:15. Final score 1–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 60% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts SC Braga at 58%, the draw at 21% and Vitória SC at 21%, from expected goals of 2.1 and 1.19.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.05 | 46% | 60% | +14% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.75 | 54% | 40% | -14% |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 | 50% | 49% | -1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: SC Braga 1.85, draw 3.40, Vitória SC 4.33.
The league sets the starting point. Primeira Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. SC Braga have 1 in 1 this season, Vitória SC 1 in 3 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 53%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 67% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 64%, from expected goals of 2.1 for SC Braga and 1.19 for Vitória SC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Braga | 1 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Vitória SC | 3 | 33% | 33% | 33% |
More: SC Braga season stats · Vitória SC season stats · Primeira Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.