Ligat Ha'al · Monday, 31 August 2026 · 18:30. Final score 3–1 (half-time 2–0). Before kick-off we rated it 58% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 60% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts Maccabi Tel Aviv at 48%, the draw at 24% and Maccabi Haifa at 28%, from expected goals of 1.69 and 1.22.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 | 65% | 58% | -7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.70 | 35% | 42% | +7% |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 | 63% | 56% | -6% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Maccabi Tel Aviv 1.60, draw 3.90, Maccabi Haifa 4.50.
The league sets the starting point. Ligat Ha'al has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Maccabi Tel Aviv have 1 in 1 this season, Maccabi Haifa 1 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 56%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 68% and 61%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Head to head. These sides have met 12 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 56%, from expected goals of 1.69 for Maccabi Tel Aviv and 1.22 for Maccabi Haifa. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maccabi Tel Aviv | 1 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Maccabi Haifa | 1 | 100% | 0% | 100% |
More: Maccabi Tel Aviv season stats · Maccabi Haifa season stats · Ligat Ha'al table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.