National League · Monday, 31 August 2026 · 15:00. Final score 1–1 (half-time 1–1). Our pre-match rating was 55% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Kidderminster Harriers at 39%, the draw at 26% and Barrow at 35%, from expected goals of 1.38 and 1.3.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 51% | 55% | +4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 49% | 45% | -4% |
| Both teams to score | 1.70 | 55% | 57% | +3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Kidderminster Harriers 2.20, draw 3.40, Barrow 2.80.
The league sets the starting point. National League has produced over 2.5 goals in 57% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Kidderminster Harriers have 2 in 4 this season (0 of 2 at home), Barrow 3 in 4 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 59%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 53% and 62%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1.38 for Kidderminster Harriers and 1.3 for Barrow. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kidderminster Harriers | 4 | 50% | 25% | 50% |
| Barrow | 4 | 75% | 25% | 75% |
More: Kidderminster Harriers season stats · Barrow season stats · National League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.