National League · Monday, 31 August 2026. Final score 1–1 (half-time 1–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 56% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Kidderminster Harriers at 33%, the draw at 27% and Barrow at 40%, from expected goals of 1.27 and 1.43.
The league sets the starting point. National League has produced over 2.5 goals in 57% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Kidderminster Harriers have 2 in 4 this season (0 of 2 at home), Barrow 3 in 4 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.27 for Kidderminster Harriers and 1.43 for Barrow. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kidderminster Harriers | 4 | 50% | 25% | 50% |
| Barrow | 4 | 75% | 25% | 75% |
More: Kidderminster Harriers season stats · Barrow season stats · National League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.