Eerste Divisie · Monday, 31 August 2026 · 19:00. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 67% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 38% | Yes |
The result model puts Jong PSV U21 at 59%, the draw at 20% and Jong Ajax at 21%, from expected goals of 2.24 and 1.28.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.25 | 76% | 67% | -9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 4.00 | 24% | 33% | +9% |
| Both teams to score | 1.30 | 72% | 62% | -11% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Jong PSV U21 1.67, draw 4.33, Jong Ajax 4.20.
The league sets the starting point. Eerste Divisie has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Jong PSV U21 have 3 in 4 this season (1 of 2 at home), Jong Ajax 4 in 4 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 70%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 65% and 65%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 65%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 83%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 67%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 68%, from expected goals of 2.24 for Jong PSV U21 and 1.28 for Jong Ajax. Folding in 30% of that view gives 67%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jong PSV U21 | 4 | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Jong Ajax | 4 | 100% | 75% | 100% |
More: Jong PSV U21 season stats · Jong Ajax season stats · Eerste Divisie table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.